Capstone Wealth Advisors／キャップストーン・ウェルス・アドバイザーズ

【　2020年、ライトハウスの「お金の悩み特集」に記事が掲載されました　】

介護費用の現状

アメリカでの退職後の生活を計画するにあたり見落とされがちなのが介護費用です。日本では最大９割まで国の介護保険制度が負担してくれますが、アメリカでは基本的に全て自己負担となります。介護（Long-Term Care）サービスは….

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Lighthouse Seattle & Portland : July 2020 (us-lighthouse.com)

【　2022年、ライトハウスの「お金の悩み特集」に記事が掲載されました　】

投資の留意点は大きく四つ、リスクと分散投資、投資資産の種類、税務、最近の動向です。

リスクと分散投資

投資にリスクは付き物です。資産によってリスクは異なり、戦争、金利とマクロ経済、政治など制御の難しいリスクから一般企業の業績や特定の不動産などの個別リスクまでさまざまです。…..

プロが解決！お金の悩み 2022 〜 アメリカでの不動産、投資、税金、資金計画

【　2018年、ライトハウスの「お金の悩み特集」に記事が掲載されました　】

A:　529プランとGETプランを用いた貯蓄方法があります

大学生の学費と必要経費、10年後には年間 57,000ドル？

子どもの大学教育費は、自動車や家の購入同様に、時世における高額は出費の１つです。2017～18年度における全米の州立大学の１年間の授業料の平均は….

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ライトハウス2018年7月号「お金の悩み特集」

Dear Valued Clients and Friends,

I hope you are well and enjoying this spring.

It was not an April fool! The market ended its 1Q 2024 with a positive note. According to the report by First Trust as of March 28^th, on a total return basis, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite indices were up 10.56% and 9.32% YTD (year to date). S&P SmallCap 600 (US small cap stock index) and MSCI EAFE (large and mid-cap stocks in twenty-one developed countries except US and Canada) gained 2.46% and 5.81% YTD, respectively. Among 12 industrial sectors of S&P 500, 11 sectors recorded positive returns except real estate. Communication services, energy, information technology, financials, and industrials had over 10% total returns for the same period.

FED had a FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting in March and issued the latest economic projection. Compared with the earlier one in December last year, it has revised up its real GDP growth projection for 2024 from 1.4% to 2.1% and 2.0% from 1.8% for 2025. It expects 2.4% and 2.2% inflation (PCE deflator) in 2024 and 2025 respectively and then 2% in 2026. It raised the target FF rate (Federal Fund Rate) to 3.9% at the end of 2025 from 3.6% last December, expecting FF rate of 4.6% at the end of 2024. Chair Powell acknowledged CPI (Consumer Price index) in January and February were higher than desired (CPI in February at 3.2% vs 3.1% in January), but he readdressed FED’s confidence that US inflationary trend was heading to a right direction to its 2% target with steady long-term inflation expectation. FED will continue watching the progress to figure out its rate cutting timing and size.

Recent economic indices support his economic view. Economic activity has been growing steadily and the labor market is still strong but more balanced in demand and supply. Real GDP growth in 4Q 2023 was revised up to 3.4% from 3.2% original estimate. Currently the Atlanta FED projects 1Q 2024 real GDP growth at 2.8%. February personal income and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) were up 4.6% and 4.9% yoy (year-over-year) with 2.5% PCE deflator vs 4.8%, 4.5% and 2.4% in January, respectively. The February employment report posted 275,000 new job creations, which was higher than the average gain of 230,000 over the prior 12 months with the 3.9% unemployment rate. According to St. Louis FED, total non-farm job openings peaked in Mar 2022 at 12.2 million after COVID outbreak, but it was down to 8.9 million in Jan 2024. On the other hand, the number of people who were unemployed and seeking a job was 5.7 million in Mar 2022 vs 5.8 million in Jan 2024, narrowing the gap between labor supply and demand. In a parallel manner, wage growth also tamed from 6.7% in Aug 2022 down to 5.0% in Feb 2024, according to Atlanta FED. The US leading economic index (LEI) for February 2024 by the Conference Board still had a negative 6-month growth rate of 2.6% but showed positive improvements in 7 out of 10 factors, getting close to the level of post-recession signal (negative 5% annualized 6-month growth rate). March ISM manufacturing index turned out to be 50.3 (over 50 is expansion/less than 50 is contraction), finally breaking 16 consecutive months of contraction with good recovery in production, new orders, and employment. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for March improved to 79.4 after it posted 76.9 in February and 79.0 in January, the largest increase since 2005. However, the February retail sales figure was weaker than expected with only 1.5% yoy growth and the January retails sales figure was also revised down to 0% yoy growth from 0.6% originally announced. Since consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP, we are closely checking retail sales figures for March and after.

The bond market now expects three 0.25% FF rate cuts by FED at the end of 2024 to 4.6% level as FED itself expects. The 10-year treasury yield is in a range between 3.8% and 4.3% this year. Depending on inflation numbers in coming months, the yield curve may shift slightly higher, and the 10-year treasury yield may go up to 4.5% or higher. In my view, it may be a suitable time to buy a long-duration bond. The 2Q corporate earnings release will start next week. This year, we may see a stronger US economy than expected. Even if the economy may slow down, we may have FED which is shifting its focus from fighting against inflation to sustainable economic growth. In that sense, a delay of FED’s rate cut might have limited negative impact on the market.

Note: PCE deflator and real GDP statics were provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. CPI data and non-fam payrolls numbers were based on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The ISM manufacturing index was provided by the Institute for Supply Management.